Decoding Crop Signals: A Look at the Yield Forecasting Landscape
- rebecca24861
- 5 minutes ago
- 4 min read
Brazil is on track for a record-breaking harvest in 2025 / 2026 no doubt about that. But not every region will deliver equally. With weather disruptions, planting delays, and shifting acreage, precision yield forecasting is now the edge for traders and ag market participants.
Accurate yield forecasting is more critical than ever for stakeholders across the supply chain, from farmers and cooperatives to traders and policymakers.
To navigate this complex landscape, several advanced tools have emerged, offering insights into crop performance and facilitating more informed, data-driven decision-making. Here are the top five yield forecasting tools for in the upcoming seasons 2025/2026.
1. SatYield
SatYield brings next-gen yield forecasting to ag commodities markets with its AI-driven platform that integrates satellite imagery and real-time data. Unlike traditional models that rely heavily on historical trends or weather station inputs, SatYield’s forecasts are dynamic, crop-specific, and built to react in real time.
This capability is especially valuable in large scale dynamic growing regions, where crop outcomes can swing dramatically due to planting delays, moisture stress, or unexpected shifts in weather.
Take the 2025 Brazil safrinha corn season as a prime example. SatYield’s early-season forecasts have already indicated a notable divergence between high-performing states like Mato Grosso and underperformers like Paraná, where delayed soybean harvests and soil moisture deficits are putting second-crop corn yields at risk.
By identifying these yield threats earlier than traditional reporting sources, SatYield empowers traders, exporters, and producers to respond faster—whether that means adjusting procurement strategies, fine-tuning logistics, or rebalancing market exposure.
In Brazil’s high-stakes grain economy, being able to spot a shortfall six weeks earlier than the rest of the market can translate into real competitive and financial advantage.
2. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)
The USDA's FAS provides comprehensive global agricultural forecasts, including detailed reports on Brazil's crop production. For the 2024/25 marketing year, the USDA maintains a record soybean production estimate of 169.0 million metric tons for Brazil, reflecting a 10% increase from the previous year.
These forecasts are crucial for international traders and policymakers, providing insights into global supply and demand dynamics. However, persistent discrepancies between USDA estimates and local Brazilian sources (like Conab) highlight the need to cross-reference with other forecasting tools for a well-rounded perspective.
3. Conab (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento)
Conab, Brazil's national supply company, offers localized and timely agricultural forecasts, drawing on extensive field data and regional expertise. For instance, Conab's estimate for the 2024/25 corn crop stands at 119.74 million metric tons, differing from the USDA's 127 million tons due to variations in area and yield assessments.
Conab’s granular, region-by-region reporting is particularly helpful for understanding domestic production risks and planning logistical operations across Brazil’s vast agricultural zones.
4. IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e EstatÃstica)
IBGE provides systematic surveys and forecasts for Brazil’s agricultural production. Its January 2025 estimate projects a record crop of 325.3 million tons, marking an 11.1% increase over 2024.
As a macro-level data provider, IBGE plays a key role in guiding public policy and infrastructure planning. However, its forecasts tend to reflect broader production trends rather than operational decision points, making it better suited for big-picture assessments than short-term strategy.
5. HedgePoint Analytics
HedgePoint Analytics blends crop forecasting with broader commodity market intelligence, offering a valuable resource for agribusinesses, exporters, and traders navigating market risk. Their 2024/25 Brazil soybean forecast stands at 170.7 million tons, with strong yields expected in top-producing states like Mato Grosso and Paraná.
HedgePoint integrates satellite monitoring and field observations, which helps interpret weather trends and price risk—but it doesn’t offer the same degree of early-season, field-level resolution as a tool like SatYield.
Why SatYield Stands Out in Brazil’s Forecasting Landscape
Each forecasting tool brings something valuable to Brazil’s ag ecosystem. Conab and IBGE offer deep local context backed by government field surveys. USDA provides a global benchmark. HedgePoint helps bridge the gap between ag data and market intelligence.
While others rely on lagging data or manual inputs, SatYield delivers faster, higher-resolution forecasts that evolve with the season—allowing ag traders, lenders, and supply chain players to act with confidence weeks ahead of traditional sources.
By leveraging high-resolution satellite imagery and adaptive AI modeling, SatYield delivers early, field-specific forecasts that evolve with in-season conditions—not months after the fact. Its platform has proven especially useful during this year’s erratic safrinha cycle, identifying underperformance in key regions well ahead of traditional reporting.
For traders managing basis risk, supply chain leads coordinating transport, or ag lenders gauging credit exposure, this kind of foresight isn’t just helpful—it’s transformative.
Looking Ahead: Smarter Forecasts, Stronger Outcomes
As Brazil moves toward another record-setting harvest year, the role of yield forecasting will only grow in importance. Whether you're evaluating national production trends, planning market entry points, or coordinating logistics in complex growing regions, choosing the right forecasting tools can be the difference between reacting and leading.
While each of the top tools covered here brings a unique lens, SatYield’s data-driven, adaptive approach is especially well-suited to the scale, speed, and variability of modern agriculture in Brazil. For those looking to stay ahead in 2025, it’s not just about access to data—it’s about trusting the right signals.
Ready to Elevate Your Yield Forecasting?
Don’t leave your 2025 harvest to chance. See how SatYield’s satellite-powered, AI-driven forecasts can give you the clarity and confidence to lead in Brazil’s fast-moving ag markets.